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The Coming Catastrophe? The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran
Posted by Lev/Christopher on November 7, 2008 at 7:37am in Prophecy & End Times
by David DeBatto
Global Research, June 23, 2008
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Global Research Editor's note
We bring to the attention of our readers David DeBatto's scenario as to
what might occur if one of the several contingency plans to attack
Iran, with the participation of Israel and NATO, were to be carried
out. While one may disagree with certain elements of detail of the
author's text, the thrust of this analysis must be taken seriously.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic
regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an
atom-bomb." (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday
in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend
its uranium enrichment program." Mr. Bush stressed again that "all
options are on the table," which would include military force. (New
York Times, 6/11/2008)
We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush
administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with
no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into
its seventh year. The "dead enders" and other armed factions are still
alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls
most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a
gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to
$5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite
assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that
the Iraq war "will pay for itself" (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see
"$20.00 per barrel" oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).
One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct
war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for
conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or
perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was
also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration
chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to
him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior
intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again
right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess –
Iran.
It’s no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches
on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military
facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in
Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a
ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn’t prefer to march
into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams
tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the
President knows we can’t pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons
will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.
If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties
by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and
from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike
the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest
of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian
military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary
Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).
Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear
weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their
nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to
be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and
steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional
munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most
likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant
casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be
destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy
(including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S.
fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a
"Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the
Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even
launched a single aircraft.
Not even close.
If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the
American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be
even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of
all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion.
American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not
killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian
Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike
U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian
Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S.
ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the
first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.
That’s just the opening act.
Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S.
military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a
coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties
effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible.
Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of
over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas.
Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons,
Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and
several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive
casualties.
The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa
fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many
military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down
or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots.
Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already
dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or
U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying
the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.
Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace,
the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack
craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off
the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then
mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American
minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy
and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations.
More U.S casualties.
The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo,
London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis
– irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends
the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S.
invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a
barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks,
that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline
at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and
subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.
If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be
able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the
side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other
critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity
(what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to
afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned
homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die
in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the
country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the
economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest
builds.
The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves
victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule
dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under
the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the
streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but
secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a
third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.
It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.
David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent,
Iraqi war veteran and co-author the "CI" series from Warner Books and
the upcoming "Counter to Intelligence" from Praeger Security
International.
Global Research Articles by David DeBatto
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